I’m amazed to read the responses and reactions of traditional medias to the chaotic evolution of the financial markets. I’m also amazed to see politicians’ reactions to the crisis.
After an incredible series of successive drops of the financial markets, traditional medias were quick to give positive interpretations when the stock market eventually went up. And then, it dropped again and politicians took over to reassure the crowds of normal people who were worrying about their jobs, savings, … The markets got confident again until they went further down on Monday this week. You can be sure the market will gain pick up and go down. No doubt about that. You should see it as a ball that you drop in the stairs. It will bounce back but in the end will end up at the very bottom of the stairs.
All the money created artificially the last years (30000 billions US$) must disappear. 15000 billions already disappeared during the first part of the crisis, about 5000 billions since early august. 10000 more to go …
I’m deeply persuaded that we are entering a recession cycle like never before with terrible consequences for companies. I’m trying to take this into account for the assignments we are currently carrying out for clients but I must admit it’s hard. The future is so fuzzy that I can’t see one very clear option to formulate strategies. Although I’ve some ideas I think that firms will undergo an incredible evolution that will force them to adapt more often their business model to the markets’ conditions.
My take:
Think about the consequences of the crisis like an application of Darwin’s theory. Some species will disappear (“traders” for instance), other (“SMEs”) will have to evolve to survive. Other species will change their habits (“consumers”) forcing predators (“banks” for instance) to adapt if they want to remain in the food chain. Many others will unfortunately die (most probably “SMEs” like always).
I may be wrong. But maybe I’m not. Let’s talk about this in 5 years from now.
Publié dans Strategy.
